What the Numbers Can Teach Us About Expectations Â
How many times in the midst of a tournament or practice round does a parent or bystander compliment a good shot from a junior, only for that compliment to be met with resistance? The junior then jumps through a series of logical hoops in an attempt to explain why that shot wasn’t “that good” to the onlooker, who is deemed to be out of touch with the player’s game.
It can be perplexing. Especially when that player is struggling and then hits a perfectly serviceable golf shot.
I’m here to say: maybe that was a good shot.
Maybe it was 100 yards from the middle of the fairway and you hit it to 20 feet. Or two holes later, you hit an 8-foot birdie putt exactly where you wanted. It catches the edge and misses.
“I need to make those.”
But do you?
In addition to changing how you react, a strong attitude is built on changing the expectations that caused the reaction in the first place. And when we actually look at the numbers, good golf may not look quite like you think it does.
What Good Golf Actually Looks Like
Before we go any further, let’s play a quick game.
If you’re a junior golfer or parent reading this, grab a piece of paper or open the notes app on your phone. If you’re a parent, you can also pull your junior golfer aside and ask them these questions without telling them what the article is about.
Don’t look anything up and answer based on your instinct.
1. From 100 yards in the middle of the fairway, how close to the hole does the average PGA Tour player hit it?
__________ feet
2. What percentage of 8-foot putts does the average PGA Tour player make?
__________%
3. From 205 yards, what percentage of the time does the average PGA Tour player hit the green?
__________%
4. From 30 yards, what percentage of PGA Tour shots finish inside 6 feet?
__________%
5. From 33 feet, what percentage of putts does the average PGA Tour player make?
__________%
6. From that same 33 feet, what percentage of the time does the average PGA Tour player three-putt?
__________%
From 100 yards in the middle of the fairway, the average PGA Tour player hits it to around 18 feet. Only about one in four shots from that distance finish inside 9 feet.
Then there’s the 8-footer you “need to make.” PGA Tour players make only a little more than half of their putts from around that distance. Of course, they’re trying to make every one of them. But hitting a good putt and watching it catch the edge isn’t some wildly unexpected outcome. It happens all the time. 205 is the inflection point where only half of the shots on tour finish on the green. From 30 yards in the fairway only 35% finish inside of 6ft. And then there are the two questions from 33 feet. The percentage is actually greater for 3-putting 6.4% than 1-putting 5.8%
The expectations don’t get much easier as we move farther away from the hole. From 205 yards,
How did your guesses compare?
If you weren’t particularly close, that’s okay. I’m not expecting junior golfers to memorize PGA Tour statistics. What I’m more interested in is whether there was a pattern to the answers you missed.
What picture of “good golf” did you have in your head before you knew the numbers?
Also one of the hidden lessons here isn’t simply “you are not perfect” it’s that there is a range of completely normal outcomes from essentially the same quality of execution. You could do the same thing and have 2 outcomes and therefore you can accept that.
Statistics sourced from PGA TOUR data and analysis published by Lou Stagner. Statistics may vary by season.
How Does knowing this Help?
Knowing the context gives us the ability to change how we handle situations and interpret the outcome. Often the lens that a player interprets the shot drives their reaction to the shot which then often carries forward into subsequent holes.
Expectation → Outcome → Interpretation → Reaction
For example let say two players hit the exact same wedge to 20 feet.
Player A believes a good wedge should finish inside 10 feet. He thinks he hit a terrible shot, gets frustrated, starts searching for a swing problem and carries that frustration to the next tee.
Player B understands realistic dispersion. He would have loved to hit it to five feet (and was absolutely trying to) but recognizes 20 feet as a perfectly reasonable outcome and nearly PGA tour quality.
Same shot. Completely different experience.
Importantly, Player B isn’t only being more positive. They are being more accurate.
That accuracy matters. If you understand what your shots actually look like over time, you can start evaluating them based on reality and making better decisions because of it. That doesn’t mean ignoring poor shots or accepting patterns that need to improve. It means understanding what it actually takes to shoot the scores you want.
Great golf isn’t a succession of spectacular shots. A great player has a realistic understanding of their pattern and produces shots that behave reasonably close to what they intended.
Golf is hard enough without expectations. However, that doesn’t mean we stop trying to get better. Continue to raise your standards. Be committed to your target, be more intentional and be more disciplined with the things you can control. Play each shot as if it is the one you need to win.
But once the ball is in the air, understand that even the best players in the world operate within a range of outcomes. A good decision and a good swing won’t always produce the result you pictured.
So the next time you hit a wedge to 20 feet, miss an 8-footer on the edge or hear someone tell you “good shot,” maybe you don’t need to immediately explain why it wasn’t.
Maybe it was a good shot.
If understanding your expectations, process and reactions on the golf course is something you want to work on, these are exactly the types of conversations I have with players through In The Golf Zone. My coaching goes beyond simply telling players to “stay positive” or “be confident.” We work to understand why you think, react and perform the way you do—and build a mental game that works for you.
Through In The Golf Zone, I work remotely with golfers across 25 states Canada and Ireland, including HJGT players competing at the highest levels of junior golf. I’ve helped junior golfers win tournaments, reach new levels in their games and pursue college golf opportunities and scholarships through individualized mental and performance coaching.
To learn more about remote coaching, working together, or a free consultation visit inthegolfzone.com or contact me via email at ben@inthegolfzone.com
